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Hurricane History, September 2020

Hurricane Sally: Two Counties, Two Storms

Sally came ashore at Gulf Shores before dawn on September 16, 2020, and then barely moved. Southern Baldwin County measured its rain in feet. Mobile, across the bay, measured it in inches.

What the Weather Service recorded on each side of the bay, why a slow hurricane is hard on a roof and the rooms under it, and what Sally teaches about the next one.

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Ask someone in Orange Beach and someone in west Mobile about Sally and you can hear two different storms. One remembers a night of wind and a long, loud rain that would not stop. The other remembers a blustery day, a lot of downed limbs and a power outage.

Both are right. This page lays out what the National Weather Service office in Mobile measured, why the two counties lived Sally so differently, and what a storm moving at walking pace does to a house. The lessons apply to the next hurricane that stalls near the bay, whichever side of it you live on.

The Landfall and the Crawl

Most hurricanes pass through in a few hours. Sally came ashore at under 5 mph.

The Weather Service summary is plain about it. Sally made landfall "in Gulf Shores, AL at 5am" on Wednesday, September 16, "as a strong Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph." It adds the detail that matters most for what came after: "The storm was moving at less than 5 mph at the time of landfall."

A hurricane moving at highway speed spreads its rain over a long path. One that creeps along at the pace of a bicycle drops it on the same roofs, hour after hour. The summary speaks of "a long duration of tropical storm and hurricane force winds." It adds that several locations in southern Baldwin County measured sustained hurricane force winds of 75 to 85 mph with gusts over 100 mph.

Rain by Place

Storm totals from 7 a.m. CDT September 14 to 7 a.m. September 17, from the Weather Service tables. The drop across the bay is the whole story.

PlaceCountyStorm total rain
Orange BeachBaldwin29.99 in
2 miles east of Fort MorganBaldwin29.30 in
FoleyBaldwin21.04 in
ElbertaBaldwin20.99 in
Near SummerdaleBaldwin15.92 in
West of FairhopeBaldwin12.44 in
Dauphin IslandMobile9.66 in
West of Tillmans CornerMobile5.59 in
Mobile Regional AirportMobile3.56 in

Mobile’s normal rain for a whole year is a little over 67 inches, according to NOAA’s climate normals. Orange Beach took close to half of that in three days. The airport in west Mobile, across the bay and well west of the wettest gauges, recorded under four inches.

How Each Side of the Bay Lived It

The eyewall and the heaviest bands stayed east of the bay. Mobile County got the wind on the storm’s weaker side.

Baldwin County

The eyewall crossed the county. The Weather Service notes that almost all of the county lost power. A research radar anemometer at Perdido Pass recorded a 3 second gust of 118 mph. Surge reached 7 to 9 feet above ground in the back bays and sounds of southeast Baldwin County, and the office explains why the flooding was worse than either one alone: with surge pushed in, the office says, all of the rain that fell had nowhere to drain. A few older homes at Fort Morgan were destroyed, and a boat storage facility at a marina suffered major damage.

Mobile County

Mobile was on the west side, where winds are lighter and rain thinner. Still, the airport recorded an 82 mph gust, and Dauphin Island saw gusts over 100 mph. The summary describes widespread power outages, major damage to the oaks in Bienville Square, and minor damage at some downtown businesses. A 3 to 4 foot surge on the north side of Dauphin Island did major damage to docks and piers, and several island buildings, including two at the Sea Lab, had roof and siding damage.

Neither county had a quiet night. But a homeowner in Foley was dealing with feet of rain over three days, while a homeowner in Theodore was more likely dealing with a tree, a fence and no power.

What a Slow Storm Does to a House

Wind opens the roof. A slow storm then keeps pouring water through the opening long after the wind has eased.

A few missing shingles in a fast storm might let in a bucket of water. The same opening under Sally let in rain for many hours, because the rain kept coming long after the strongest gusts. Water that gets past the roof covering follows a predictable path:

  1. The roof deck and underlayment

    Where shingles lift, water runs along the felt and finds every nail hole and seam. Wet decking softens and stains, and it can stay damp under new shingles if nobody checks it.

  2. The attic insulation

    Blown and batt insulation soak up water and hold it against the ceiling drywall, so the ceiling looks fine for a while and then sags or falls.

  3. Ceilings and walls

    Water moves down inside wall cavities, behind paint, out of sight. A stain on one ceiling often means wet insulation and framing across a much larger area.

  4. Floors

    Carpet pad, laminate and the subfloor under them take what runs down the walls. Wood floors cup over the following weeks.

  5. The mold clock

    The EPA says water damaged areas should be dried within 24 to 48 hours to prevent mold. In a house with no power after a hurricane, with September heat and humidity, that window closes quickly.

The longer the rain, the larger the job

A roof claim that becomes a ceilings, insulation, walls and floors claim usually got there one hour of rain at a time. Getting the opening covered and drying started in the first day is the single thing that most changes the size of the repair. Our storm damage work starts with finding where the water went, and we document every room for the adjuster.

Lessons From Sally

Category 2 sounded manageable. The slow crawl is what made it expensive.

  • Watch the forward speed, not only the category. A forecast that says the storm will slow near the coast is a forecast for a lot of rain in one place.
  • Plan for the side of the bay you live on. Sally showed that eastern Baldwin County and western Mobile County can have very different nights from the same hurricane.
  • Surge and rain work together. In the back bays, high water had nowhere to drain to, and rain piled on top of it. Our page on storm surge and Mobile Bay covers how the bay fills.
  • Check the attic as soon as it is safe. Ceiling stains show up last. Wet insulation is there first.
  • Prepare before June. The list on before the storm covers the roof, papers, photos and power.

Questions About Sally

I live in Mobile and Sally barely touched my house. Why worry about the next one?

Because the next one may come ashore west of the bay. Sally’s heaviest rain and its eyewall stayed in Baldwin County; a storm on a slightly different track could put Mobile on the wet, windy side. Frederic in 1979 came ashore at Dauphin Island, and Mobile County went weeks without power in places.

My ceiling only showed a stain weeks after Sally. Is that still storm damage?

It can be. Water from a slow rain often soaks insulation and wall cavities before it shows on paint. Photograph the stain, look at the attic above it, and tell your insurer when you first noticed it. Our page on roof damage after a storm walks through what to check.

Should I stay in a house with wet ceilings after a storm like this?

Not under a ceiling that sags or bulges, and not if water has reached outlets or the electrical panel. Keep people out of those rooms, turn off power to wet circuits if you can do it safely, and get the house assessed before you move back into those rooms.

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